Notes From a Burning Spain

Spain in flames, a pointless war that forgot its reasons, and an oil shock that never came.

Lau here, writing from Spain.

Barely a week ago, the entire nation was glued to the World Cup final. This week, Spaniards are watching their country burn.

In case you haven’t seen the news, a savage heat wave has touched off wildfires up and down the country, and it’s hitting especially hard here in the Valencia region, where we happen to be staying.

The photos below could easily have been taken from the highway we were driving on just last week. (Good thing we weren't headed that direction.)

Source: X

And right on cue, we’re handed the reason: climate change. It’s always climate change. But talk to anyone who actually studies how these fires start, and you get a different, less convenient answer.

The Mediterranean has always had hot, dry summers. That part isn’t new. What’s new is the fuel. The Spanish even have a name for the deeper cause: la España vacía, “empty Spain.” Over the past few generations the rural interior hollowed out — people left the villages for the cities and the coast, and the work left with them. Grazing stopped. Clearing stopped. The old habit of working the land, burning the brush back, keeping the undergrowth down, died with the rural economy that used to do it. Add decades of “put every fire out the second it starts,” and you’ve quietly stacked a tinderbox the size of a province.

The point is, heat alone doesn't create catastrophes. The neglect makes sure that once one catches, it doesn't stop.

If you're an American and you're getting a sense of déjà vu, you should — it's pretty much the same script behind California's infernos. Years of fuel piling up in forests nobody’s allowed to thin or burn, then a spark, then a catastrophe the politicians pin entirely on the weather.

But of course, it's easier to blame CO₂ emissions and climate change than admit the land was mismanaged for forty years.

Now, here in the EU, that kind of thinking is of course out of step with the official line. You’re perfectly free to say it out loud, sure. You’re just not free from what comes after: the label, the pile-on, the climate denier tag. And if you know anything about the current state of Europe, you know it can get worse than a label. In some countries here, voicing the wrong opinion on social media can land you with a fine, or a knock on the door from the police.

Which brings me to an old Soviet joke I shared on the feed last week:

Remarkable how it applies to so many Western countries today.

I’m not sure you caught this, but even on Musk’s own X, the European Commission recently strong-armed the platform into adding a reporting tool — a button for flagging content that supposedly runs afoul of European rules.

Here’s a screenshot from my own X feed, taken just a few minutes ago.

Source: X

Speaking of Musk, his marquee venture has been having a rougher time of it — SpaceX, the private-market darling everyone was scrambling to own just weeks ago, has come sharply back to earth. I posted a note on it last week:

The war with Iran, meanwhile, grinds on... After another week of strikes, threats, and frantic diplomacy, the two sides are still haggling over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while mediators scramble to keep the fighting from spiraling again.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: if you don’t see how outrageous and meaningless this war has been, you only need to understand two things.

First, the entire reason the U.S. is still fighting now comes down to the Strait of Hormuz. And the truly outrageous part is that keeping it open wasn't even a problem before the war started.

Second, everything we were originally told this war was about — zero enrichment, Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and so on — has quietly been dropped from the talks. That alone should tell you what an utter, pointless failure this has been.

Since we’re on the subject of Hormuz, maybe it’s just my own bubble, but I’ve been seeing more and more people wonder why, with everything going on, we still haven’t seen $200 oil. My relatives have asked me. A good number of readers have too. So last week I sat down and wrote the whole thing up.

(Judging by the response, plenty of readers who hadn’t asked were wondering the exact same thing.)

The essay is linked just below, but the short version is this: China — the world's biggest buyer of crude — quietly pulled off the largest intervention in the history of the oil market, and almost nobody noticed while it was happening.

This week I'm sitting down to write a part two, because the more important question isn't how China canceled the oil shock — it's why. I'll give you the spoiler: the Chinese Communist Party didn't do it out of the goodness of their hearts.

Meanwhile, again, you’ll find the China oil piece below, along with last week’s other essay and the reader discussions they sparked.

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From the Comments

One of the things I’ve come to appreciate most about writing here is the conversation that happens in the comments. Here are seven that stood out, for different reasons. Each one links back to the piece it appeared on, so you can click through if you’re interested in the context, including my replies and the conversations that followed.

Thanks again to everyone who left a comment last week. I read all of them, even the ones I don’t get a chance to reply to individually. Over the coming days, I’ll try to catch up on the questions and the longer threads.

See you in the comments this week.

Regards,

Lau Vegys

P.S. If you joined as a paid member this week — welcome aboard. Here’s where to dive in:

• The first recommendation — a uranium play, with the full thesis, buy-up-to price, and tranche levels.

• The second recommendation — a silver miner, out this weekend.

• The live portfolio — the scorecard of every open position and where each one stands.