The government published the receipts last week. 93% of the fuel in American reactors came from abroad. That's a problem for the country, and an opportunity for somebody.
Lau, I did finally get time to read your white paper Uranium Report. Great work, as is this quicker summary. I'm already invested in your US recommendation. I'll put in some more. Thanks for the reminder. Of course it's still small speculative investment, but the right place to be possitoned in this space. I hope you'll go more into how we're going to rapidly improve our uranium processing supply chain. Any of us, given a moment of reflection, can see why the shouting and positioning by Trump Adm is so misalighned at the fundamental level with what we need to keep our industrial base or rebuild what we have left, and yet politics for this gang is no different that politics for all the administrations around the world (with a few exceptions). I hope, honestly, that inspite of the apparent threats, sanctions, bullying from the megaphones in power around the world, in fact the Chris Wrights and Scott Bessants of the world have some clear through put to their counterparts enough so to keep us on course inspite of the storms. Also, Lau, regardubg using spent fuel as France and Japan are able to do with their different style reactors. Any progess or suggestions there? Keep up the good work. Jay
Thanks, Jay. That’s generous, and glad the report was worth the time.
On reprocessing: a lot of people actually assume, for some reason, that it’s banned in the U.S. It’s not. In fact, Carter deferred commercial reprocessing in 1977 on proliferation grounds, and Reagan reversed that policy in 1981. Nothing happened anyway, because fresh uranium stayed cheap enough for the next forty years that recycling never really penciled out. It was just economics. On reprocessing in France and Japan: the former reprocesses spent fuel (and burns MOX), and that covers roughly a tenth of its nuclear fuel needs. So it’s useful at the margin. Not a solution. As for Japan, its Rokkasho plant has been under construction since the 1990s and still hasn’t entered commercial operation. So there's that.
So my take is that even if America started tomorrow, reprocessing wouldn’t make the enrichment bottleneck disappear, and building a commercial-scale system would take many years. That’s how I see it.
Thanks, Sier. As I've said before, I actually like thorium as a technology... but from an investing perspective it's a very different story. There are still VERY few ways to invest in it directly, and commercial deployment remains well behind uranium. China has a pilot molten salt reactor, and India has been working on thorium for decades. The problem is, the entire nuclear industry is already built around uranium: the reactors, the fuel cycle, the regulations, the supply chain etc. That's a very high hurdle to overcome. So from an investing standpoint it's still very much a "future story." I'll probably write a dedicated piece on it at some point because it's an interesting subject.
US ban on Russian uranium looks a lot like EU ban on Russian gas by the way. I wonder to which extend they will be enforced when this becomes more than just a political stance...
"over a third of American uranium comes from two ex-Soviet republics that aren’t especially stable"...and the other majority comes from two unstable socialist countries that increasingly see carbon dioxide as a poison and candles as a modern replacement for electric lights.
A great time to invest in domestic (American) mining and processing. Anyone who thinks that growing power demands can be met by wind and solar should spend some time in a 3rd world country like Namibia or California where the power goes out every day.
Nice to see both uranium recommendations confirm price support and then take leaps higher. These are going to be 10-bangers by 2030...unless the next administration puts us on power rations. Then Lau better start researching candle makers.
>>and the other majority comes from two unstable socialist countries that increasingly see carbon dioxide as a poison and candles as a modern replacement for electric lights.
Lau, I did finally get time to read your white paper Uranium Report. Great work, as is this quicker summary. I'm already invested in your US recommendation. I'll put in some more. Thanks for the reminder. Of course it's still small speculative investment, but the right place to be possitoned in this space. I hope you'll go more into how we're going to rapidly improve our uranium processing supply chain. Any of us, given a moment of reflection, can see why the shouting and positioning by Trump Adm is so misalighned at the fundamental level with what we need to keep our industrial base or rebuild what we have left, and yet politics for this gang is no different that politics for all the administrations around the world (with a few exceptions). I hope, honestly, that inspite of the apparent threats, sanctions, bullying from the megaphones in power around the world, in fact the Chris Wrights and Scott Bessants of the world have some clear through put to their counterparts enough so to keep us on course inspite of the storms. Also, Lau, regardubg using spent fuel as France and Japan are able to do with their different style reactors. Any progess or suggestions there? Keep up the good work. Jay
Thanks, Jay. That’s generous, and glad the report was worth the time.
On reprocessing: a lot of people actually assume, for some reason, that it’s banned in the U.S. It’s not. In fact, Carter deferred commercial reprocessing in 1977 on proliferation grounds, and Reagan reversed that policy in 1981. Nothing happened anyway, because fresh uranium stayed cheap enough for the next forty years that recycling never really penciled out. It was just economics. On reprocessing in France and Japan: the former reprocesses spent fuel (and burns MOX), and that covers roughly a tenth of its nuclear fuel needs. So it’s useful at the margin. Not a solution. As for Japan, its Rokkasho plant has been under construction since the 1990s and still hasn’t entered commercial operation. So there's that.
So my take is that even if America started tomorrow, reprocessing wouldn’t make the enrichment bottleneck disappear, and building a commercial-scale system would take many years. That’s how I see it.
Hi Lau. Where do you think Thorium fits in this whole picture? Enjoying your detailed analysis. Thanks Sier
Thanks, Sier. As I've said before, I actually like thorium as a technology... but from an investing perspective it's a very different story. There are still VERY few ways to invest in it directly, and commercial deployment remains well behind uranium. China has a pilot molten salt reactor, and India has been working on thorium for decades. The problem is, the entire nuclear industry is already built around uranium: the reactors, the fuel cycle, the regulations, the supply chain etc. That's a very high hurdle to overcome. So from an investing standpoint it's still very much a "future story." I'll probably write a dedicated piece on it at some point because it's an interesting subject.
Thanks for this quick review.
US ban on Russian uranium looks a lot like EU ban on Russian gas by the way. I wonder to which extend they will be enforced when this becomes more than just a political stance...
"over a third of American uranium comes from two ex-Soviet republics that aren’t especially stable"...and the other majority comes from two unstable socialist countries that increasingly see carbon dioxide as a poison and candles as a modern replacement for electric lights.
A great time to invest in domestic (American) mining and processing. Anyone who thinks that growing power demands can be met by wind and solar should spend some time in a 3rd world country like Namibia or California where the power goes out every day.
Nice to see both uranium recommendations confirm price support and then take leaps higher. These are going to be 10-bangers by 2030...unless the next administration puts us on power rations. Then Lau better start researching candle makers.
>>and the other majority comes from two unstable socialist countries that increasingly see carbon dioxide as a poison and candles as a modern replacement for electric lights.
Good point, Thomas.