It took longer than I expected. I kept going back into the text, and then probably spent longer than I should have on how the thing actually looks. Partly because something you’re going to keep on your hard drive ought to be worth keeping, and partly because I’ve found that when a thing is set properly you read it more carefully and more of it stays with you. Anyway. It’s done.

Situation Normal: Uranium is nineteen pages and six charts, sitting at the bottom of this post as a PDF. Download it, keep it. Paid subscribers, as promised.

It’s the thing I wish somebody had handed me when I first started poking around this market. A plain explanation of how uranium actually works, why it behaves like nothing else in resources, and what’s going on in it right now.

Read it front to back and you’ll know more about this market than 99.9% of people out there, including most of the ones who already own uranium stocks. I don’t say that to flatter myself. This sector just gets covered badly.

Some of what’s in there:

• Uranium is the one commodity where demand doesn’t flex. A copper smelter can be idled. A reactor can’t.

• 156 million pounds a year. It’s the number in every research report written about this market, and it’s close to useless, because it describes a market the sanctions of the last two years quietly killed.

• 440 reactors running, 80 more physically under construction, 445 planned or proposed. By 2040 the world needs around 390 million pounds a year, and identified supply covers less than half of that.

• Producers are still delivering into old contracts at around $61 a pound while new ones are being signed at $97. For a miner with all-in costs of $40, that’s the difference between earning $21 a pound and earning $57. Uranium itself doesn’t have to move a dollar for it.

• 92% of the uranium burned in American reactors comes from abroad. Over a third of it from Russia and two ex-Soviet republics that are increasingly looking east.

• Why the price hasn’t spiked yet, and you get the honest answer rather than the bullish one.

• Plus the four questions I keep getting from readers. Isn’t this just the AI trade? What about small modular reactors? What if the Russian ban gets lifted? Could another Chernobyl end all of it?

One more thing and then I’ll get out of the way.

There’s no company named in the report. Doesn’t need to be. There’s already one in the SNAFU portfolio.

I laid out the company in full at the time. But the case for uranium itself, the reason to own any of this, is in the report. So if you read that recommendation and wanted more before acting on it, this is the more. Read it first, then go back. → Read the recommendation

Now, the report.

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